‘Robust chronologies’ or ‘Bayesian illusion’? Some critical remarks on the use of chronological modelling

  • Hans-Christoph Strien Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany
Keywords: Bayesian modelling, Central Europe, Early Neolithic, chronology, 14C, Correspondence Analysis

Abstract

The explanatory power of Bayesian chronological modelling is often overestimated, leading to an uncritical belief in the reliability of each isolated model without the necessary look at archaeological connections between different models. The methodical pitfalls of this approach, especially in combination with inaccurate use of typochronological methods, are highlighted for Linear Pottery Culture (ger. Linienbandkeramik – LBK) and Middle Neolithic chronological models from Central Europe (Jakucs et al. 2016; Denaire et al. 2017; Bánffy et al. 2018). A more critical approach to Bayesian modelling, considering possible mathematical artefacts and the deficits of the actual calibration curve as well as the inherent imprecision of the used typochronological dates, seems to be required.

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Published
2019-12-06
How to Cite
Strien, H.-C. (2019). ‘Robust chronologies’ or ‘Bayesian illusion’? Some critical remarks on the use of chronological modelling. Documenta Praehistorica, 46, 204-215. https://doi.org/10.4312/dp.46.13
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Articles